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 portfolio optimization


Autoregressive Policy Optimization for Constrained Allocation Tasks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Allocation tasks represent a class of problems where a limited amount of resources must be allocated to a set of entities at each time step. Prominent examples of this task include portfolio optimization or distributing computational workloads across servers.Allocation tasks are typically bound by linear constraints describing practical requirements that have to be strictly fulfilled at all times. In portfolio optimization, for example, investors may be obligated to allocate less than 30\% of the funds into a certain industrial sector in any investment period. Such constraints restrict the action space of allowed allocations in intricate ways, which makes learning a policy that avoids constraint violations difficult.In this paper, we propose a new method for constrained allocation tasks based on an autoregressive process to sequentially sample allocations for each entity. In addition, we introduce a novel de-biasing mechanism to counter the initial bias caused by sequential sampling. We demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to a variety of Constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) methods on three distinct constrained allocation tasks: portfolio optimization, computational workload distribution, and a synthetic allocation benchmark. Our code is available at: https://github.com/niklasdbs/paspo


b427426b8acd2c2e53827970f2c2f526-Paper.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

However,the criteria by which the prediction model is trained are often inconsistent with the goal of the downstream optimization problem. Recently, decision-focused prediction approaches, such as SPO+ and direct optimization, have been proposed to fill this gap. However, they cannot directly handle the soft constraints with the max operator required in many real-world objectives.


Federated Learning from Vision-Language Foundation Models: Theoretical Analysis and Method

Neural Information Processing Systems

Integrating pretrained vision-language foundation models like CLIP into federated learning has attracted significant attention for enhancing generalization across diverse tasks. Typically, federated learning of vision-language models employs prompt learning to reduce communication and computational costs, i.e., prompt-based federated learning. However, there is limited theoretical analysis to understand the performance of prompt-based federated learning. In this work, we construct a theoretical analysis framework for prompt-based federated learning via feature learning theory. Specifically, we monitor the evolution of signal learning and noise memorization in prompt-based federated learning, demonstrating that performance can be assessed by the ratio of task-relevant to task-irrelevant coefficients. Furthermore, we draw an analogy between income and risk in portfolio optimization and the task-relevant and task-irrelevant terms in feature learning. Leveraging inspiration from portfolio optimization that combining two independent assets will maintain the income while reducing the risk, we introduce two prompts: global prompt and local prompt to construct a prompt portfolio to balance the generalization and personalization. Consequently, we showed the performance advantage of the prompt portfolio and derived the optimal mixing coefficient. These theoretical claims have been further supported by empirical experiments.


Hybrid LSTM and PPO Networks for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a hybrid framework for portfolio optimization that fuses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting with a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning strategy. The proposed system leverages the predictive power of deep recurrent networks to capture temporal dependencies, while the PPO agent adaptively refines portfolio allocations in continuous action spaces, allowing the system to anticipate trends while adjusting dynamically to market shifts. Using multi-asset datasets covering U.S. and Indonesian equities, U.S. Treasuries, and major cryptocurrencies from January 2018 to December 2024, the model is evaluated against several baselines, including equal-weight, index-style, and single-model variants (LSTM-only and PPO-only). The framework's performance is benchmarked against equal-weighted, index-based, and single-model approaches (LSTM-only and PPO-only) using annualized return, volatility, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown metrics, each adjusted for transaction costs. The results indicate that the hybrid architecture delivers higher returns and stronger resilience under non-stationary market regimes, suggesting its promise as a robust, AI-driven framework for dynamic portfolio optimization.


From Headlines to Holdings: Deep Learning for Smarter Portfolio Decisions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep learning offers new tools for portfolio optimization. We present an end-to-end framework that directly learns portfolio weights by combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal patterns, Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture evolving inter-stock relationships, and sentiment analysis of financial news to reflect market psychology. Unlike prior approaches, our model unifies these elements in a single pipeline that produces daily allocations. It avoids the traditional two-step process of forecasting asset returns and then applying mean--variance optimization (MVO), a sequence that can introduce instability. We evaluate the framework on nine U.S. stocks spanning six sectors, chosen to balance sector diversity and news coverage. In this setting, the model delivers higher cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios than equal-weighted and CAPM-based MVO benchmarks. Although the stock universe is limited, the results underscore the value of integrating price, relational, and sentiment signals for portfolio management and suggest promising directions for scaling the approach to larger, more diverse asset sets.


Toward Quantum Utility in Finance: A Robust Data-Driven Algorithm for Asset Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clustering financial assets based on return correlations is a fundamental task in portfolio optimization and statistical arbitrage. However, classical clustering methods often fall short when dealing with signed correlation structures, typically requiring lossy transformations and heuristic assumptions such as a fixed number of clusters. In this work, we apply the Graph-based Coalition Structure Generation algorithm (GCS-Q) to directly cluster signed, weighted graphs without relying on such transformations. GCS-Q formulates each partitioning step as a QUBO problem, enabling it to leverage quantum annealing for efficient exploration of exponentially large solution spaces. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real-world financial data, benchmarking against state-of-the-art classical algorithms such as SPONGE and k-Medoids. Our experiments demonstrate that GCS-Q consistently achieves higher clustering quality, as measured by Adjusted Rand Index and structural balance penalties, while dynamically determining the number of clusters. These results highlight the practical utility of near-term quantum computing for graph-based unsupervised learning in financial applications.


End-to-End Large Portfolio Optimization for Variance Minimization with Neural Networks through Covariance Cleaning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a rotation-invariant neural network that provides the global minimum-variance portfolio by jointly learning how to lag-transform historical returns and how to regularise both the eigenvalues and the marginal volatilities of large equity covariance matrices. This explicit mathematical mapping offers clear interpretability of each module's role, so the model cannot be regarded as a pure black-box. The architecture mirrors the analytical form of the global minimum-variance solution yet remains agnostic to dimension, so a single model can be calibrated on panels of a few hundred stocks and applied, without retraining, to one thousand US equities-a cross-sectional jump that demonstrates robust out-of-sample generalisation. The loss function is the future realized minimum portfolio variance and is optimized end-to-end on real daily returns. In out-of-sample tests from January 2000 to December 2024 the estimator delivers systematically lower realised volatility, smaller maximum drawdowns, and higher Sharpe ratios than the best analytical competitors, including state-of-the-art non-linear shrinkage. Furthermore, although the model is trained end-to-end to produce an unconstrained (long-short) minimum-variance portfolio, we show that its learned covariance representation can be used in general optimizers under long-only constraints with virtually no loss in its performance advantage over competing estimators. These gains persist when the strategy is executed under a highly realistic implementation framework that models market orders at the auctions, empirical slippage, exchange fees, and financing charges for leverage, and they remain stable during episodes of acute market stress.


Autoregressive Policy Optimization for Constrained Allocation Tasks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Allocation tasks represent a class of problems where a limited amount of resources must be allocated to a set of entities at each time step. Prominent examples of this task include portfolio optimization or distributing computational workloads across servers.Allocation tasks are typically bound by linear constraints describing practical requirements that have to be strictly fulfilled at all times. In portfolio optimization, for example, investors may be obligated to allocate less than 30\% of the funds into a certain industrial sector in any investment period. Such constraints restrict the action space of allowed allocations in intricate ways, which makes learning a policy that avoids constraint violations difficult.In this paper, we propose a new method for constrained allocation tasks based on an autoregressive process to sequentially sample allocations for each entity. In addition, we introduce a novel de-biasing mechanism to counter the initial bias caused by sequential sampling.


Federated Learning from Vision-Language Foundation Models: Theoretical Analysis and Method

Neural Information Processing Systems

Integrating pretrained vision-language foundation models like CLIP into federated learning has attracted significant attention for enhancing generalization across diverse tasks. Typically, federated learning of vision-language models employs prompt learning to reduce communication and computational costs, i.e., prompt-based federated learning. However, there is limited theoretical analysis to understand the performance of prompt-based federated learning. In this work, we construct a theoretical analysis framework for prompt-based federated learning via feature learning theory. Specifically, we monitor the evolution of signal learning and noise memorization in prompt-based federated learning, demonstrating that performance can be assessed by the ratio of task-relevant to task-irrelevant coefficients. Furthermore, we draw an analogy between income and risk in portfolio optimization and the task-relevant and task-irrelevant terms in feature learning.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Investor-Specific Portfolio Optimization: A Volatility-Guided Asset Selection Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Portfolio optimization requires dynamic allocation of funds by balancing the risk and return tradeoff under dynamic market conditions. With the recent advancements in AI, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has gained prominence in providing adaptive and scalable strategies for portfolio optimization. However, the success of these strategies depends not only on their ability to adapt to market dynamics but also on the careful pre-selection of assets that influence overall portfolio performance. Incorporating the investor's preference in pre-selecting assets for a portfolio is essential in refining their investment strategies. This study proposes a volatility-guided DRL-based portfolio optimization framework that dynamically constructs portfolios based on investors' risk profiles. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for volatility forecasting of stocks and categorizes them based on their volatility as aggressive, moderate, and conservative. The DRL agent is then employed to learn an optimal investment policy by interacting with the historical market data. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is established using stocks from the Dow $30$ index. The proposed investor-specific DRL-based portfolios outperformed the baseline strategies by generating consistent risk-adjusted returns.